The week of March 2–6 will be studied in market history classes. It started with a geopolitical shock (US-Israel strikes on Iran), escalated through five straight days of oil gains, and ended Friday with the worst jobs number since the pandemic: −92,000 nonfarm payrolls, unemployment at 4.4%. WTI surged +35% on the week — the largest weekly gain in futures trading history. Brent closed at $92.32. The S&P 500 finished at 6,740, wiping out all 2026 gains and turning negative year-to-date. The VIX spiked to 28 intraday. The word of the week is stagflation: oil above $90 + a shrinking job market is the combination the Fed has no clean answer to. Within the carnage, three things held: AI infrastructure earnings (NVDA, AVGO, MRVL all beat), defense stocks (LMT at record highs), and energy (XOM, CVX, XOP at multi-year highs). For next week: ORCL and ADBE are the pivotal earnings events, and any Iran/Hormuz development is a binary macro catalyst.
Market Indices | Weekly Scorecard — Week of March 2–6, 2026
US Equity Indices
| Index | Fri Close | Week Chg | YTD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6,740.02 | −4.2% | −1.2% | Worst week since Oct 2023; all 2026 gains erased |
| Nasdaq Composite | 22,387.68 | −5.0% | −1.8% | Tech hardest hit; AI names partially insulated |
| Dow Jones Ind. | 47,170.06 | −3.9% | −2.5% | Airlines, industrials, Boeing led weekly losses |
| Russell 2000 | ~1,990 | −5.8% | −4.1% | Deepest weekly loss; small-cap = domestic growth proxy |
| S&P 500 Equal Wt. | ~6,080 | −4.6% | −3.2% | Breadth confirms broad-based selling, not just mega-cap |
International Indices
| Index | Fri Close | Week Chg | YTD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTSE 100 | ~8,480 | −2.1% | −0.5% | Relatively resilient; energy sector buffer |
| DAX (Germany) | ~21,200 | −3.5% | −3.1% | Energy import cost most acute for German mfg. |
| Nikkei 225 | ~37,200 | −4.8% | −4.6% | Sharp energy + currency pressure |
| KOSPI (Korea) | ~2,490 | −6.5% | −5.0% | Worst EM performer; defense sub-sector offset |
| Hang Seng | ~22,900 | −1.4% | +0.3% | Relative outperformer; China’s limited exposure |
| MSCI EM | ~1,040 | −3.8% | −2.5% | Energy importers led losses across EM universe |
Oil | Historic Week — WTI +35% in Five Days: The Energy Shock of a Generation
| Instrument | Fri Close | Fri Chg | Week Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude (CLJ26) | $90.14 | +11.3% | +35.0% | Largest weekly gain in futures trading history. Iran tanker strike. |
| Brent Crude | $92.32 | +8.1% | +30.2% | Broke $85 Thu, $90 Fri. Goldman $100 scenario now base case. |
| Oil Implied Vol 1M | ~55% | +15pts | Extreme | Commodity vol at extreme; energy desks in full crisis-hedge mode |
| Natural Gas (US) | $4.35 | +6% | +12% | LNG rerouting + EU emergency demand; elevated further |
| Gasoline Futures | $2.95/gal | +9% | +28% | Pump prices approaching $4.50/gal nationally — demand destruction risk |
WTI crude went from approximately $67 pre-conflict on Feb 27 to $90.14 at Friday’s close: a $23 move in five trading sessions. For context: the 1990 Gulf War oil spike took three months to produce a comparable percentage move. The Iran tanker strike Friday afternoon broke the market’s last hope of a quick Hormuz resolution. Goldman’s $100 Brent scenario is no longer tail risk. It is the central case if the conflict extends beyond 30 days. At $100 Brent: US CPI adds +0.8–1.0 percentage points via energy and transportation pass-through within 60 days. The Fed has no clean answer. Rate cuts to support growth, but inflation is already above target. Rate holds to fight inflation — but the job market just lost 92,000 workers. Stagflation is no longer a risk scenario. It is the base case.
VIX | Regime Watch — VIX at 23.57: We Are in an Elevated Vol Regime Through the Conflict
| Instrument | Fri Close | Fri Chg | Week Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX (CBOE Spot) | 23.57 | +10% | +47% | Spiked to 28.15 intraday; highest close since Aug 2024 |
| VIX Intraday High | 28.15 | Fri | Week hi | Brief panic peak on NFP miss + oil $90 simultaneously |
| VIX Curve | Backwardation | Signal | Signal | Near-term fear > long-term; classic geopolitical regime |
| Put/Call Ratio | >1.4 | Elevated | High | Aggressive protective positioning throughout the week |
| Oil Impl. Vol 1M | ~55% | +15pts | +27pts | Commodity vol most extreme signal of the week |
The VIX started the week at ~15 (pre-conflict calm) and ended at 23.57, touching 28 intraday on Friday. This is a regime change, not a temporary spike. Historically, VIX holds above 20 for an average of 6–8 weeks following a major geopolitical shock with sustained oil disruption. What brings VIX back below 18: Hormuz re-opening (the most powerful single catalyst), a ceasefire, or a decisive Fed pivot. None of these are imminent.
Rates & Currencies | Weekly
| Instrument | Fri Close | Fri Chg | Week Chg | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Yr Treasury | 4.02% | −8bps | −8bps | Rally on recession fear offsetting inflation; risk-off bid |
| 2-Yr Treasury | 3.98% | −15bps | −18bps | June cut odds jumped to ~50%; 2yr most rate-sensitive |
| 2s10s Spread | +4bps | Steepen | Steepen | Curve steepening = recession + eventual cut being priced |
| Fed Funds (Jun) | ~50% cut | Jumped | +18pts | From 33% last week; NFP miss the trigger |
| USD Index (DXY) | ~104.2 | −0.3% | +0.9% | Stagflation mixed dollar signal; haven vs. growth fear |
| EUR/USD | 1.0870 | +0.4% | −0.9% | EUR recovering slightly as dollar stagflation concerns rise |
Data Review | February Jobs Report — March 6, 2026
| Indicator | Actual | Consensus | vs Est. | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb) | −92,000 | +60,000E | MISS −152K | First monthly job loss since COVID. Worst miss in years. |
| Unemployment Rate (Feb) | 4.4% | 4.3%E | +0.1pp | Highest since mid-2024; approaching 4.5% recession threshold. |
| Avg Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.8% | 3.7%E | +0.1pp | Wages still growing above trend — stagflation wage component intact. |
| Avg Hourly Earnings MoM | +0.3% | +0.3%E | In line | No wage growth acceleration; at least not running hot. |
| Participation Rate | 62.4% | 62.6%E | −0.2pp | Falling participation = workers leaving the labour force. |
| Jan Payrolls (revised) | +126,000 | 130,000 prior | Down 4K | January revised lower — prior strength was overstated. |
| Dec Payrolls (revised) | −17,000 | +50,000 prior | Down 67K | December was actually a contraction. Significant backward revision. |
Friday’s simultaneous arrival of −92,000 payrolls and oil above $90 created the most challenging macro combination since the 1970s stagflation era. The Fed’s dual mandate has never been more directly in conflict: unemployment jumped to 4.4% (heading toward the FOMC’s own 4.5% threshold for concern) while inflation via energy is running dangerously hot. The backward revisions are arguably the most alarming detail — December 2025 was revised from +50,000 to −17,000. The job market was already deteriorating before the Iran conflict. June rate cut probability jumped to ~50% on the NFP miss alone. But cutting rates into $90+ oil would risk unleashing the very inflation spiral the Fed has spent two years fighting. Watch every Fed speaker next week for any signal of how they are resolving this dilemma.
Top Headlines | Week of March 2–6, 2026
| # | Headline | Market Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | US-Israel strikes Iran; Supreme Leader Khamenei killed (Feb 28–Mar 2) | Single most significant geopolitical event in decades. Immediate WTI +8%, VIX to 26. Triggered full week of risk-off selling. |
| 2 | Strait of Hormuz closed; Iran strikes oil tanker Friday | Active military targeting escalated passive closure. WTI to $90.14 Friday. Goldman $100 Brent scenario becomes base case. |
| 3 | February NFP: −92,000 — first job loss since COVID | Stagflation confirmed: shrinking labour market + energy inflation. S&P 500 −1.33% Friday. June cut odds jump to 50%. |
| 4 | NVDA Q4 FY2026: $68.1B revenue (+73%); FQ1 guide $78B | Landmark quarter. AI infrastructure supercycle re-confirmed. Provides only consistent positive narrative for the week. |
| 5 | Marvell (MRVL) +22.1% on week; AI semi hat-trick with AVGO | NVDA + AVGO + MRVL all beat and raise. Hyperscaler AI capex ($200B+) flowing through supply chain intact. |
| 6 | Brent breaks $85 (Thu) then $90 (Fri) — highest since 2023 | Two consecutive threshold breaks in two days. Inflation narrative dominates. Airlines, industrials, consumers hit hardest. |
| 7 | Day One Biopharmaceuticals acquired by Servier for $2.5B (+65.6%) | Biggest M&A deal of the week. Glioma drug Ojemda drives premium. Biotech M&A cycle accelerating. |
| 8 | XOP ETF hits highest since June 2022; energy E&P in momentum phase | Chord Energy, Matador, Phillips 66, Valero, Marathon all at 52-week highs. Only sector printing consistent gains. |
Notable Stocks | Week’s Best & Worst Performers
Best Performers
| Ticker | Week Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| DAWN | +65.6% | Day One Biopharmaceuticals acquired by Servier for $2.5B. Glioma drug Ojemda drives deal premium. Biotech M&A highlight of the week. |
| MRVL | +22.1% | Q4 FY2026 beat + Q1 FY2027 guide $2.4B vs $2.28B consensus. AI custom silicon surging. Completes AI semi hat-trick with NVDA + AVGO. |
| IOT | +17.4% | Samsara beat Q4 and raised FY2027 guidance strongly. Fleet intelligence and industrial IoT demand robust despite macro. |
| LMT | +14% | Record $692 intraday. $194B backlog + conflict procurement cycle. JPMorgan Buy upgrade. Defense complex leading sector. |
| XOP | +12% | Energy E&P ETF at June 2022 high. MPC, VLO, Chord Energy, Matador all at 52-wk highs. Oil +35% makes every E&P model look cheap. |
| PLTR | +9% | PT raised to $200 by Rosenblatt. AIP/Maven Smart System live-fire validated in Iran conflict. Government AI mandate shift beneficiary. |
| AVGO | +8% | Q1 FY2026 beat + $22B Q2 guide. AI rev $8.4B (+106% YoY). CEO: AI chip revenue >$100B in 2027. |
Worst Performers
| Ticker | Week Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| INGRM | −17.5% | Secondary offering pricing shortly after Q4 earnings. Dilution overhang + no earnings surprise catalyst. |
| CRDO | −15%* | *Initial post-earnings selloff on GM guide 64–66% vs 68.6% prior; partially recovered. 272% YoY revenue growth intact. |
| RUM | −13.6% | Q4 earnings miss; ad revenue shortfall. Platform monetization still challenged. Hit 52-week low. |
| GTLB | −9% | FY2027 guidance miss on both revenue and EPS. GitHub/Microsoft competition structural and worsening. |
| AAL | −8% | Hardest-hit airline. Direct fuel cost exposure with limited hedge capacity. Demand risk compounded. |
| CCL | −8% | Discretionary travel fears + fuel surge. Spring/summer booking season at risk if conflict extends. |
| AEO | −6% | Q1 tariff warning: ~$60M H1 impact. Consumer apparel most import-cost-exposed sector. |
* CRDO partially rebounded later in the week. Underlying business remains strong.
Notable Earnings | Week of March 2–6, 2026
| Ticker | Revenue | EPS | Beat? | Stock | Key Takeaway |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRVL | $2.22B vs $2.21BE | $0.80 vs $0.79E | BEAT | +22.1% | Q1 FY27 guide $2.4B vs $2.28BE. AI custom silicon demand surging. Week’s top earner. |
| NVDA | $68.1B vs ~$65BE | $4.43 adj | BEAT | +2% | FQ1’27 guide $78B. Data Center +75% YoY. Supercycle confirmed. |
| AVGO | $19.31B vs $19.26B | $2.05 vs $2.03E | BEAT | +8% AH | AI rev $8.4B (+106%). Q2 guide $22B. CEO: >$100B AI chip rev in 2027. |
| COST | $69.60B vs $69.29B | $4.58 vs $4.57E | BEAT | −1.5% | Beat but sold off on stretched valuation. Comps +6.4%, digital +20.5%. |
| IOT | Beat | Beat | BEAT | +17.4% | Samsara FY27 guidance strong raise. Industrial IoT demand resilient. |
| GAP | In line | $0.45 | MIXED | Flat | Old Navy steady. Gap brand improved. Tariff headwind flagged for H1 2026. |
| KR | In line | $1.35 | MIXED | Flat | Identical sales +2.4% ex-fuel. Logistics costs weighing on FY26 outlook. |
| TTD | $847M vs $841M | Beat | MIXED | −16% | Q4 beat but Q1 guidance soft. Ad market caution persists. |
| AEO | In line | Light | MISS | −6% | Tariff warning: ~$60M H1 impact. Consumer apparel most import-cost-exposed. |
| CRDO | $404–408M | Beat | BEAT | −15%* | 272% YoY growth. Sold off on GM guide compression. Rebound underway. |
Sector Scorecard | Week of March 2–6, 2026
| Sector | Week Perf. | Stance | Key Names & Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Energy (E&P + Integ.) | +12 to +18% | OVERWEIGHT | XOM, CVX, XOP, MPC, VLO — Brent $92; WTI +35% on week |
| Defense | +10 to +14% | OVERWEIGHT | LMT record, NOC, RTX, PLTR — procurement cycle + AI defense |
| AI Infrastructure | +8 to +22% | OVERWEIGHT | MRVL +22%, AVGO +8%, NVDA +2% — hat-trick earnings beats |
| Biotech (M&A) | +5% | NEUTRAL+ | DAWN +66% (acquired). Sector M&A momentum accelerating |
| Defensive Consumer | +2% | OVERWEIGHT | COST, ROST — trade-down thesis; quality beats amid macro stress |
| Gold / Precious | +1% | NEUTRAL | Stabilising post-liquidation; alternative haven interest modest |
| Mega-Cap Tech | −2% | NEUTRAL | AAPL, MSFT soft; Berkshire trimming continues |
| Software (SaaS) | −5 to −8% | UNDERWEIGHT | GTLB −9%, TTD −16%; HF net exposure 5-yr low; avoid |
| Airlines | −7 to −9% | UNDERWEIGHT | AAL, UAL, DAL, WN — fuel shock + demand risk. Worst S&P performers |
| Consumer Discret. | −6% | UNDERWEIGHT | AEO, ANF, CCL — tariff + fuel + consumer sentiment triple threat |
Outlook | Week of March 9–13, 2026
Stagflation confirmation: The −92K payroll print + $90+ oil is the stagflation signal markets have feared all year. Every piece of data next week will be filtered through this lens. Any signs of labour market further deterioration = equity pressure.
Iran / Hormuz: Still the single most binary macro catalyst. A ceasefire or Hormuz re-opening in the next 7 days would trigger an immediate 3–5% S&P 500 rally and oil −15%+. No resolution = oil grind higher toward $100.
Fed communication: Multiple Fed speakers scheduled following the NFP shock. Markets will be parsing every word for hints of a June cut decision. Any dovish pivot in language = risk-on, especially for rate-sensitive growth stocks.
AI earnings season continuation: ORCL (March 10) and ADBE (March 12) are the next two high-profile prints. Following NVDA, AVGO, and MRVL all beating, AI-adjacent companies now face elevated expectations.
Upcoming Earnings | Week of March 9–13
| Date | Ticker | Company | EPS Est. | Key Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Mar 9 | DZSI | DZS Inc. | — | Telecom equipment; early capex cycle post-conflict read. |
| Tue Mar 10 | ORCL | Oracle (AMC) | $1.47E | OCI (AI cloud) growth vs AWS/Azure. Gov’t AI mandate shift beneficiary. Guide is key. |
| Tue Mar 10 | GTLB | GitLab (AMC) | $0.18E | Following guidance miss — additional downside risk. GitHub competition focus. |
| Wed Mar 11 | SPWH | Sportsman’s Wrhse. | $0.12E | Consumer discretionary check on outdoor/sporting goods spending. |
| Thu Mar 12 | ADBE | Adobe (AMC) | $4.97E | AI monetization (Firefly): revenue contribution or open-source risk? Critical print. |
| Thu Mar 12 | DG | Dollar General (AMC) | $1.68E | Consumer trade-down proxy. Tariff cost impact on private label margins. |
| Thu Mar 12 | ULTA | Ulta Beauty (AMC) | $5.53E | Premium vs. value beauty split. Consumer sentiment bellwether. |
| Fri Mar 13 | SIG | Signet Jewelers | $4.20E | Discretionary luxury. Holiday sell-through + Q1 engagement data. |
ORCL (Oracle) — Tuesday March 10 AMC. EPS est. $1.47. OCI (Oracle Cloud Infrastructure) is the critical metric. OCI has been taking AI workload share from AWS/Azure in government and enterprise segments. The federal mandate shifting AI contracts away from Anthropic-backed products creates a direct windfall for Oracle’s government cloud. Watch: FQ4 revenue guide above $15B would be a significant catalyst. Database migration to OCI + Autonomous Database adoption rate are secondary signals.
ADBE (Adobe) — Thursday March 12 AMC. EPS est. $4.97. Adobe’s AI monetisation is at a critical inflection. Firefly and AI Assistant need to show actual revenue contribution, not just engagement. Open-source image tools and ChatGPT’s image generation are real competitive threats. Watch: digital media net new ARR and any AI revenue disclosure. A miss on ARR or cautious AI monetization guide would be severely punished at current multiples.
Event Calendar | Week of March 9–13, 2026
| Day | Time (ET) | Event | Priority | What to Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Mar 9 | All Day | Iran / Hormuz Conflict Status | HIGH | Ceasefire signal = full risk-on reversal. Oil tanker strike Friday escalated — watch for diplomatic response. |
| Mon Mar 9 | All Day | Fed Speaker: Waller (FOMC Voter) | HIGH | First Fed voice post-NFP shock. Tone on rate cut path will move markets. |
| Tue Mar 10 | 6:00 AM | NFIB Small Business Optimism (Feb) | MED | First small business check post-conflict. Any sharp decline signals SME disruption. |
| Tue Mar 10 | AMC | Oracle (ORCL) Q3 FY2026 Earnings | HIGH | AI cloud (OCI) growth. Gov’t AI contract pipeline. Revenue guide for FQ4. |
| Tue Mar 10 | AMC | GitLab (GTLB) Q4 FY2026 Earnings | MED | Following guidance miss — further downside risk. Watch for additional guidance cut. |
| Wed Mar 11 | 8:30 AM | CPI Inflation (Feb) | HIGH | CRITICAL: First inflation print with oil surge partially captured. Energy component will be extreme. Core watch. |
| Wed Mar 11 | 2:00 PM | Fed Speaker: Bostic | MED | Atlanta Fed President on economic outlook post-NFP and oil shock. |
| Thu Mar 12 | 8:30 AM | Initial Jobless Claims | HIGH | Second consecutive labour data point post-NFP. Watch for claims spike confirming −92K trend. |
| Thu Mar 12 | 8:30 AM | PPI (Feb) | HIGH | Producer prices with energy embedded. Will show pipeline inflation pressure building. |
| Thu Mar 12 | AMC | Adobe (ADBE) Q1 FY2026 Earnings | HIGH | AI monetisation critical. Firefly revenue contribution. Digital media ARR. |
| Thu Mar 12 | AMC | Dollar General (DG) + Ulta (ULTA) Earnings | MED | Consumer trade-down (DG) and discretionary sentiment (ULTA). |
| Fri Mar 13 | All Day | Univ. of Michigan Sentiment (Mar, Final) | MED | Consumer sentiment post-full-week of $90+ oil prices. Inflation expectations key. |
The February CPI print drops Wednesday, March 11 at 8:30 AM ET, and it will be unlike any CPI release in recent memory. Energy prices rose approximately 20–25% in February on a monthly basis due to the conflict and WTI surge. Goldman estimates headline CPI could print +0.7–0.9% month-over-month, pushing year-over-year above 4.0% for the first time since 2023. Core CPI (ex-food and energy) is the key signal for the Fed: if core stays below 3.5%, the Fed can frame energy inflation as transitory. If core accelerates past 3.5%, the stagflation narrative fully locks in and June cut odds will fall sharply back down. Wednesday’s CPI is the single data point that resolves the ‘rate-cut or hold’ debate for Q2.
Stagflation confirmed — the word that defined this week will define the next several months of market narrative. Oil above $90, payrolls negative, the Fed paralysed. Within the wreckage: AI infrastructure (NVDA, AVGO, MRVL), defense (LMT, PLTR), and energy (XOM, CVX, XOP) are the only sectors printing consistent gains. Own the three that work. Watch March 11 CPI above all else next week.
This morning note is prepared for internal research and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any security. All views, estimates, and price targets are as of the close of trading on March 6, 2026 and subject to change. Market data sourced from CNBC, Bloomberg, CME, and Yahoo Finance. NFP data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (March 6, 2026 release). Past performance is not indicative of future results.