NVDA just delivered a quarter for the history books: $68.1B in revenue (+73% YoY), Data Center at $62.3B (+75%). FQ1 2027 guidance of $78B is well above any Street model. This is not a beat — it’s a reset of the AI infrastructure investment supercycle. Simultaneously, Palantir is the rare defense-AI crossover now getting institutional recognition: Rosenblatt raised its PT to $200 citing live-fire validation of AIP and Maven Smart System in the current Iran conflict. Berkshire’s Q4 13F confirms the meta-narrative: trim AAPL, add energy (CVX), initiate Alphabet — rotate from mature tech into real-asset and AI-infrastructure plays. Defense (LMT, NOC, RTX) remains the geopolitical hedge. The macro backdrop is still fragile — but within that, NVDA, PLTR, LMT, and CVX are the four names to own.
Market Indices & Futures
Pre-market pressure deepens into Iran Day 5. The S&P 500 closed at 6,816.63 (−0.94%), erasing all 2026 gains; futures are pointing to another −1.7% open. The Nasdaq 100 faces the heaviest pressure (−2.2% futs) as mega-cap tech gets caught in the risk-off rotation. Small caps are the worst performer — the Russell 2000 fell −3.7%, reflecting domestic demand fears. The Dow held above 48,000 support but not convincingly, finishing at 48,501 (−403 pts).
The VIX spiked to a 3-month high of 22–27 (+23%), with the futures curve in backwardation — meaning near-term fear is elevated above longer-dated expectations. Put/call ratio above 1.2 signals accelerating protective hedging.
Rates & Bonds
The bond market is finally playing the safe-haven role. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 12bps to 4.02%, the 2-year fell 8bps to 4.18% — Fed cut expectations are quietly creeping back into pricing as geopolitical stress dominates the inflation narrative. The 2s10s spread remains inverted at −16bps; recession watch is active. Real yields eased slightly, which removes one headwind for growth assets.
Commodities & Currencies
Brent crude remains at $81/bbl (+8% over two days) with the $100/bbl scenario alive as long as Hormuz stays effectively closed. WTI is at $74, off the peak of $84 but still highly elevated. Natural gas surged +5% on LNG rerouting pressure and European demand spikes. Gold pulled back −5% from its spike highs near $5,000 — this is profit-taking and margin liquidation, not a fundamental reversal. Re-entry on gold looks compelling at $4,800.
The dollar (DXY ~104.5, +0.95%) is the strongest safe-haven expression — EUR and GBP both under pressure from the European energy import shock. Bitcoin crossed back above $70,000 (+4%), its first time in two weeks, as the geopolitical safe-haven narrative gains traction alongside traditional assets.
International markets are broadly weaker. Korea’s KOSPI saw the sharpest single-day drop (−5.0%), while Korean defense names surged +20%. China (CSI 300 −0.24%, Hang Seng −0.29%) is the relative outperformer as domestic-demand-focused markets see limited direct conflict exposure.
NVDA Earnings — The Supercycle Print
Q4 FY2026 numbers: Revenue $68.1B (+73% YoY). Data Center $62.3B (+75% YoY). FQ1 2027 guide: $78B vs. Street ~$72B. NVDA also announced a $4B investment in Lumentum and Coherent — extending its AI data center moat into optical interconnects, a critical bottleneck it is now solving itself. Analyst consensus PT moved to $263.
Our take: The $78B guide resets every AI infrastructure model higher. Hyperscaler capex — Amazon ($200B), Meta ($115–135B), Alphabet ($175–185B) for 2026 — confirms GPU demand is structural and accelerating. Any dip from earnings-day volatility is a buying opportunity. NVDA is the highest-conviction long in the coverage universe.
Pre-Market Company Movers
PLTR +PT to $200 — Rosenblatt raises from $150 to $200 (Buy). Defense-AI crossover re-rating fast. AIP and Maven Smart System are in live production during ‘Operation Epic Fury.’ Q4 2025 revenue $1.41B (+70% YoY); FY2026 guide $7.2B. Government AI mandate shift away from competitors creates structural demand.
LMT +7% — Record $692 — 52-week high after Iran strikes. $194B backlog — unprecedented. F-35, PAC-3, THAAD demand at Cold War levels. JPMorgan upgraded to Buy. Hold / add on any dip to $670.
MRNA +11% — Settled patent lawsuit with Biopharma Corp. & Genevant Sciences for up to $2.25B over COVID vaccine IP. Removes the largest known liability overhang. Settlement certainty is bullish; watch pipeline catalysts (flu, RSV mRNA) for the next leg.
ROST +7% — Q4 beat: EPS $2.00 vs. $1.90E; Revenue $6.64B vs. $6.42BE. Consumer trade-down thesis intact and accelerating with conflict-driven sentiment hit. Add on any open-day give-back below pre-market levels.
COIN +5% — Bitcoin back above $70K. IBIT and ETHA ETF inflows accelerating. Tactical long viable; size as a trade, not a core.
GTLB −9% — FY27 revenue guide $1.099–1.118B and EPS 76–80c missed on both lines. GitHub/Microsoft structural competitive pressure is worsening. HF net exposure to software is at a 5-year low. Pre-market −9% is not the trough; sell-side downgrades to follow at the open.
ANF −2% — Q1 EPS guide $1.20–1.30 below Street. Discretionary spending pressure + tariff cost input squeeze. Avoid.
Berkshire Hathaway 13F — Q4 2025 (Filed Feb 17, 2026)
$274B portfolio, 42 disclosed positions. Three signals worth following today:
CVX (+7% added in Q4) — Made before the Hormuz closure, now looks prescient with Brent at $81. This isn’t a trade; Berkshire’s energy conviction has real-asset backing.
GOOGL (NEW position initiated) — The most tech-forward signal from Berkshire in years. Buffett’s team now owns the AI infrastructure layer (Search + Cloud + Gemini). This legitimizes the AI platform thesis and gives it the Berkshire imprimatur.
AAPL (−14.92% reduction) — Berkshire has been trimming Apple since Q1 2024 without stopping. That is a sustained, multi-quarter signal on mega-cap tech valuations. PMs rotating out of AAPL in the current environment are following the same logic.
Other notable moves: CB (Chubb) +15.9% — insurance premium cycle benefits from conflict risk repricing. VRSN −32.36% — significant reduction, valuation stretched. BAC −6.15% — ongoing caution on large banks given rate uncertainty.
Trade Ideas — Four Actionable Setups
LONG — NVDA | BUY | PT: $263 — Catalyst: Q1 FY2027 results in ~90 days. The $78B guide resets every AI infrastructure model. The $4B optical interconnect investment extends the data center moat. Any dip from earnings-day volatility is a buying opportunity. Risk: Geopolitical de-escalation; China ASIC alternatives gain ground faster than expected.
LONG — PLTR | BUY | PT: $200 (Rosenblatt) — Catalyst: Q1 2026 earnings + contract announcements. The only pure-play Defense-AI software at scale. AIP and Maven are validated in production. $7.2B FY2026 revenue guide (+61% growth) is tracking ahead. At ~$145, off late-2025 highs but with fresh narrative catalyst. Risk: Rapid conflict resolution removes near-term catalyst; budget sequestration.
LONG — LMT | BUY | PT: $780 — Catalyst: Congressional budget revision + quarterly earnings. Record $194B backlog + conflict-driven procurement urgency = best revenue visibility in industrials. F-35, PAC-3, THAAD at demand levels not seen since the Cold War. JPMorgan Buy upgrade confirms the institutional view. Hold through the conflict; trim on ceasefire headline. Risk: Surprise ceasefire; cost overruns on legacy programs.
SHORT — GTLB | SELL | PT: $44 | Stop-loss: $58 — FY27 guide missed on both revenue and EPS. GitHub/Microsoft competitive dynamic is structural and worsening: GitHub has developer mindshare, Microsoft has the Azure/Visual Studio distribution moat. HF net exposure to software at a 5-year low — macro and micro deterioration together. Risk: Strategic acquirer bid; dramatic guide raise next quarter.
Sector Positioning Heat Map
Overweight (adding): Defense (LMT, NOC, RTX, PLTR), Semis/AI Infra (NVDA, AMD, AVGO), Energy Integrated (CVX, XOM), Healthcare/Biotech (MRNA overhang cleared), Off-Price Retail (ROST).
Neutral to watching: Crypto/Digital (COIN — tactical on BTC >$70K). Mega-Cap Tech (AAPL, MSFT — Berkshire trimming; valuations stretched).
Underweight: SaaS/Software (GTLB miss confirms; HF net exposure at 5-year low), Airlines (AAL, DAL — fuel cost shock, no hedge buffer), Consumer Discretionary (ANF guide light; tariff input cost risk in Q2).
Key Events Today — Wednesday, March 4, 2026
8:15 AM ✅ RELEASED — ADP Private Payrolls (Feb): +63K — Beat vs. ~43K consensus and well above the revised Jan figure of 11K (revised down from 22K). Best hiring since July 2025, led by construction and education/health services. However, gains remain concentrated — ADP notes the pay premium for job-changers hit a record low, signaling no broad labor market acceleration. Context for Friday’s NFP: constructive but not definitive. Jan’s sharp downward revision is a red flag to carry into the BLS print.
10:00 AM ✅ RELEASED — ISM Services PMI (Feb): 56.1 — Significant beat vs. Jan 53.8; highest reading since July 2022 and 20th consecutive month of expansion. Business Activity surged to 59.9 (+2.5pts), New Orders jumped to 58.6 (+5.5pts). Prices Index eased to 63.0 from 66.6 — modest disinflation in services, which is exactly what the Fed wants to see. This print complicates the rate-cut narrative: a resilient services economy alongside geopolitical inflation = Fed stays on hold.
2:00 PM ⏳ UPCOMING — Fed Beige Book — First release since Iran escalation. Energy inflation commentary will drive rates immediately. Watch for anecdotal evidence of supply chain disruption, freight cost pressures, and any mention of geopolitical demand impacts on business sentiment. A hawkish read = yields spike, risk-off deepens.
All Day — Iran diplomacy / Hormuz watch: ceasefire = aggressive risk-on (oil short, tech long); escalation = stay defensive. Senate war powers resolution vote on Iran also scheduled today — outcome could signal Congressional appetite for limiting executive military authority. Congressional defense hearings: watch for LMT, NOC, RTX contract announcement timing. NVDA sell-side PT revisions following earnings call: could lift SOX broadly into the close.
NVDA and PLTR are the two highest-conviction longs in this tape. Defense is the geopolitical hedge. Energy stays elevated until Hormuz reopens. Stay patient on broad re-entry — 6,750 on the S&P is the number to watch.